Tuesday, July 14, 2020

NY, NJ, MA, Half Of Covid Deaths


"There are lies, damed lies, and statistics"  ... maybe Disraeli, maybe Balfour, apparently through Twain. 
Why is it a true statement? Because one can select the stat that appears to "prove" your point, while ignoring statistics that would appear to disprove it. Like the blind men describing an elephant by which part of it they are feeling, stats strongly depend on selection -- often both in the sampling and in the reporting.

Pretty much, if anyone quotes a raw number, you know that they are lying to you. Without scaling, the information is useless. Scaling to magnitude is the MINIMUM to engage in anything approaching statistical honesty.

Indeed, Sweden’s death rate is remarkably close to that of France, which Williams praised as a model in contrast to the “utter disaster” in the US. However, the US actually has a lower per capita death rate than both Sweden and France—at least for now. (While it’s true COVID cases are on the rise again in the US, deaths recently reached three-month lows.)
So NY, NJ and MA account for nearly half of all the Covid deaths in the US. Seems like anyone interested in understanding how to deal with Covid or future similar viruses would be focusing there as opposed to surges in CASES elsewhere. 

However, in this age of everything being political, the only really important part of the narrative is "Orange Man BAD"! 

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