Christ, Covid, Sheep

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/covid-confusion-is-largely-intentional.php

The linked gives yet another case where statistics are tools used to "make a case" that happens to be a false case. Most of the purveyors of the mythology of those stats likely know what they are doing and simply see the myth as "better" -- for their narrative, for their power, maybe even because it MIGHT "save one life".

Mostly I don't bother to cross post to FB these days, because it only adds to the power of FB, and as the meme says, in today's world of virtuous herd following, it only irritates. However, I prefer that both my friends and enemies are not completely certain of what I will do, because in this new life of seizures, neither am I.

The GOOD (and bad) news is that we are all "Karens" meaning sheep. As sheep, we all have an innate desire to follow SOMETHING or someone, and given that nature, we WILL follow. Bob Dylan did a great song on it, one of my favorites. I am a sheep of Christ's pasture. As a sheep with seizures, I get the blessing of much more regular reminders of how fragile my existence is, and how little power earthly measures have over my quality of life. I'm thankful that with the help of God, medicine can reduce my pain and confusion  for at least a time. I never appreciated how wonderful it is to remember my name until I could not.

The fact of  our sheephood, weakness, lack of intelligence, sin, -- much like the fact of death, is not one of our favorite pieces of our reality. We are creatures of habit, both good and bad, and we are exceptional RATIONALIZERS while only fleetingly rational if we use  lots of math, physics, deep difficult and honest theology, prayer, and most of all, GRACE.  Denial is another of our "strengths". 

Statistics are marketing, not science, and  Social "Scientists" have a ton of justified physics envy  -- they are at best "soft scientists", and often just marketers of positions they "feel" to be "right. Soft Scientists didn't WANT to have to admit that fat was a lot better than carbs, and they resisted admitting their error even at the cost of millions of lives. From Communism to fascism to abortion to damaging religious belief causing millions more to commit suicide, we are all in a nice guilty crowd.

"Believe the Science" is proof of epistemological incompetence -- See Feynman. Our culture has abandoned education to the level that we no longer know our limitations -- but they are still there. 

Those that seek control will work hard to increase fear. You will get sick! You will  be hated!  You will die! Painfully even, and we will laugh at you because you refused to do exactly what we told you to do! Ultimately we will likely  murder in mass as we have before, (and currently with abortion)  and we will feel absolutely certain that we MUST do it again! Often the only "moral" thing for the "majority" to do is to kill or send those who refuse to bow to the grave or gulag. 

Perhaps men like Dan Crenshaw  will be able to return us to at least enough "Fortitude" to comprehend it's advantage over fear and the followers who seek to make fear a virtue.

I continue to pray for our return to accepting our dependence on God. 

as

Covid Death Returns To Normal

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/07/whither-coronavirus.php

Not a lot to add ... in the real world, Covid is effectively over ... sure, like many other things, people continue to die at "a rate".

NY, NJ, MA, Half Of Covid Deaths

https://fee.org/articles/3-states-account-for-42-percent-of-all-covid-19-deaths-in-america-why/

"There are lies, damed lies, and statistics"  ... maybe Disraeli, maybe Balfour, apparently through Twain. 

Why is it a true statement? Because one can select the stat that appears to "prove" your point, while ignoring statistics that would appear to disprove it. Like the blind men describing an elephant by which part of it they are feeling, stats strongly depend on selection -- often both in the sampling and in the reporting.

Pretty much, if anyone quotes a raw number, you know that they are lying to you. Without scaling, the information is useless. Scaling to magnitude is the MINIMUM to engage in anything approaching statistical honesty.

Indeed, Sweden’s death rate is remarkably close to that of France, which Williams praised as a model in contrast to the “utter disaster” in the US. However, the US actually has a lower per capita death rate than both Sweden and France—at least for now. (While it’s true COVID cases are on the rise again in the US, deaths recently reached three-month lows.)

So NY, NJ and MA account for nearly half of all the Covid deaths in the US. Seems like anyone interested in understanding how to deal with Covid or future similar viruses would be focusing there as opposed to surges in CASES elsewhere. 

However, in this age of everything being political, the only really important part of the narrative is "Orange Man BAD"! 

Masks, Drunks, Streetlights

https://threader.app/thread/1281600911006142464

Not far down in the linked it makes the common assessment of many "safety things" ... "why not"?

The classic joke is of the drunk looking for his keys under a streetlamp. Somebody is trying to be helpful in the search and asks if he is certain he lost them here. "No, he replies, I lost them up there, but the light is better here!"

Good for a laugh, but so true of a lot of "science", especially the social type. Why are we looking here or in this way? Because we CAN ... we have data, or can get it somehow! (or often extrapolate based on other data, selected by similar availability)

Our modern world is full of "can't hurt, good light here" logic. The real world is notoriously hard to measure, and  there are VERY few "can't hurts" in that real world.  The real world tends not to give mercy for being certain, but wrong. Telling kids to wait an hour after they eat to swim "can't hurt" ... so maybe they go off to another spot with nobody around, swim anyway, and drown.

Doing a lot of keeping kids from dirt and doing a bunch of disinfecting "couldn't hurt" -- except their immune systems didn't develop and various allergies, Asthma, and who knows what else exploded.

We could go on to nausea, and the REALLY nasty stuff is the stuff we don't even think about, or is purposely hidden -- think statins, fish oil, ???? The "unknown unknowns" can be especially viscous. They are the shadows behind the mysterious "how did we get HERE???" We are SURE we followed all the expert direction!

I certainly DO NOT know if masks hurt anything beyond critical thinking, independent thought,  and "common sense" ( now called "stupidity, not caring for others, etc) by the mask zealots. You MUST comply or we will call you names -- oh, and who knows what we may do later. Rest assured, it will be for your own good! The smart folks just know better! (and today we are assured that words definitely DO hurt you, unlike the old "sticks and stones" admonishment in the less "progressed" time.) Name call away -- hurting "bad and uncaring people" would be GOOD!

This is the age of "If all your friends are jumping off a cliff, are you going to follow them?" Having the correct answer of; YES, OF COURSE! for the culture at large today.

The authorities are mostly certain now that masking is so good it needs to be mandatory. (like most left wing ideas) Are they as certain as they were in the 1970's that we were out of oil, in the 1980's that the USSR was never going away, in the 1990's that "the Internet Economy" has made things like profits obsolete, or up until like 2005, the "food pyramid" -- the primary reason Americans are fat. Look at those carbs at the base!

I'm not wearing masks outside because it makes no sense to me. If the virus is THAT contagious, it IS going to you unless you are in HEAVY isolation.  Yes, I understand that to some folks, that will make me foolish and worthy of mask shaming.

In situations where there are "clear majority masks" or mandated, I'll go along to get along. Yes, I also understand that for some folks, that means that I'm "stupid, don't care about others, rebellious, etc" -- again, that is their judgment, and in the virtue signalling world, judgement is a virtue (the harsher the better)!

I'll never criticize somebody for wearing a mask, lifting it, rubbing their nose, etc  -- even if their nose is totally out (as is common), it doesn't cover completely, or whatever. They are trying to do what they see as best for whatever reason -- they hope it protects them, protects others, they don't want to be shamed, they want to look smart, or they have a PHD in public health, virology, etc I respect their choice.

I'm one of those old idiot Bible type Christians that believe that judgement of others -- even about things much more eternally serious than Covid, is above my pay grade. My creed declares that I even need to love those that judge me harshly and possibly even hate me.

Not that I do that well at all -- my mask of being Christlike certainly leaks (badly) and I trust in his Grace to see me home -- by his plan, which IS being carried out in spite of Covid, accidents, and perils unlimited. I'm safe in his eternal care.

A Viral Fable

Once upon a time in the Middle Kingdom, there arose a Great Leader -- so great that even many of those certain that they were enlightened (especially the young)  living in the old world territories hoisted his visage on posters and studied his little red book. As time passed, the Middle Kingdom decided to kill most of its girl babies, while the enlightened decided that children were a burden to their existence of ease and pleasure, and thus ceased having them, especially those of the evil caucasian race that were sorry for their great sins of destroying the environment and formerly being proud of their ancient culture. Their freedom to kill the unborn on the altar of convenience and pleasure became an important sacrament of their faith.

Years passed. The Middle Kingdom grew ever stronger, often aided by technologies stolen from the enlightened kingdoms. who grew ever weaker, more divided, more selfish, more addicted to pleasure, less interested in study, work, responsibility and more ashamed of their ancient culture and religion. They lost any understanding of why they had once been great and powerful,  and ceased to be so. They educated the fewer and fewer children they had to hate their culture and history, and revered centralized bureaucratic state controlled systems like the Middle Kingdom they had worshiped in their youth. They became increasingly compliant and easily led by experts. 

Independent thought became "deplorable", or sometimes seen as "bitterly clinging" to their ancient religion and such outmoded ideas as freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom of association. and the right to bear arms. For many, their primary virtue became showing how willing they were to follow the dictates of whatever the centralized state and world wide media complex decreed to be the facts as duly declared by the experts. 

The Middle Kingdom realized that "going viral" was power -- both in the Social Media world with "memes", and in the physical world with modified viruses. They began to experiment with modified RNA ... "Bird Flu", "Swine Flu", etc. Many attacked only pigs or chickens, but as knowledge grew, the viruses became more and more targeted. In 2009 the H1N1 virus, focused on  people less than 50 years of age, infected 60 million around the globe, and killed 500 thousand -- or maybe more. When the numbers got to high in an ancient territory ruled by BO, they just quit testing. Most of the world was blissfully unaware of this successful test of physical and media viral control. 

In 2017-2018, another successful test killed 80 thousand in the ancient territory that was once a set of united states, but was now a divided impotent backwater largely controlled by a corrupt global government. This level of carnage also received essentially no attention from the general population, proving the power of the global media. 

The focus of the masses was directed to the media created crisis that had  put the Middle Kingdom on high alert.  A larger group than predicted set of proletariat reactionaries had elected populist leaders in the ancient kingdoms of England and America who foolishly claimed they would return these former nations to the bad old days of intact families, understanding of the old culture, and even so far as allowing worship of the discredited religion of "The One True Faith" -- in fact, many of the adherents to this discredited religion were supporters of these dangerous leaders! 

This unfortunate occurrence required the Middle Kingdom to accelerate plans, and release a modified Corona virus which was very specifically targeted to those 70 years of age and above. Even more critical to the plan was the use of the global state media to declare this virus as exceedingly deadly to the entire population, and through their allies in the global health organizations to shut down the economies of the ancient kingdoms, which had quickly flourished under the dangerous reactionary leaders. 

The level of fear allowed a shift to only voting by mail, which in turn allowed the votes to be created and counted by Deep State employees, in total agreement with expert approved global elite dogma. The 50 year plan of the Great Leader of little red book and posters was finally realized! The people who had worshiped his visage in their youth were now in complete control! 

The early 2020s became known as "The Viral Age". A series of targeted viruses were released, the most crucial of which was 90% effective in killing caucasian males over the age of 40. Since a huge majority those under the age of 40 had been fully indoctrinated with the teachings of the Great Leader, the threat of any continuation or recurrence of what quickly became known as "The Deplorable Rebellion" went down the memory hole.

As the Middle Kingdom became "The Kingdom",  the goal of a benevolent one world state was finally achieved. Through an expertly controlled global media, ubiquitous global surveillance, and genetically engineered targeted viruses. Finally, a completely rational peaceful state was realized! The tragic and mysterious Muslim Plague following the Hajj in 2021 killed 70% of the world Muslim population before 

Huadong Medicine incredibly developed an effective (but expensive) vaccine. The fortunes of trillionaires Bill Gates, Barack Obama and Michael Bloomberg were much enhanced due to their prescient investments in this fine humanitarian company.

In these post post modern times, it is extremely dangerous to claim "a moral" to ones fables. The concept of "fiction" is considered extremely dangerous, since it indicates a freedom of thought indicative of the illusion that mere private thoughts have some validity in the reality of absolute state control of thought, association, speech, travel and any old tired ideas of the worship of something beyond the state.

Be well, comrade! 

** For the censors that rule, I humbly beseech you to remember this is FICTION (the future always is!), and therefore, here in the pre Middle Kingdom era, highly necessary to maintain a threadbare illusion of free speech!**

Dr Erickson, Covid, Isolation Risks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfiFoXtfVU8&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1L0zxAIiS20L9o5X0RiV3OFylPTd_XmsbjI7p5R_qX7SZ1lgGbGsKzuBE


It is WELL worth your time to watch at least "15 min" of this excellent video. The summary is easy:

• We now know that unless you are in a vulnerable group, Covid is mild flu and needs to be treated as such.
  
• Your immune system is like your muscles. It must be "exercised" to stay strong. Isolate, wear a mask, it will weaken -- and then you get sick. There are LOTS of germs and viruses can make you very sick and/or kill you. They did not go away just because everyone decided to focus on Covid! We used to keep sick people in bed for a long time, now we get them up ASAP -- we LEARNED! 

Get out, don't wear a mask. BE WELL! If people shame you, remember to love your neighbor! (unless of course you are in a vulnerable group!

The video is well done, lots of solid information with NO NAME CALLING! One of the bigger points is simply that "projections are not reality". They don't fault anyone for making doom and gloom projections, they would have done the same, early on!

What they want to get out now is that as for "some reason", our global health system (especially Europe and US) is failing to adjust for what is being seen in the real world as that information increasingly becomes available. 

WHY the the over reaction was as extreme as it has been, and why there is such reluctance to learn from the GOOD NEWS is still a mystery that needs to be better understood. This can't be "the new normal"!

Vary your news sources, look at sites like Worldometers, and SCALE THE NUMBERS to population. Observe that Sweden with no lockdowns, reasonable social distancing is doing pretty well.




Observe that in the US, the deaths are very localized:



Take a deep unmasked breath and LEARN!

The End Of The Corona Myth

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

An excellent summary article. Much like the end of the USSR, fracking will never lower gas prices. we are out of oil, cholesterol is bad, Trump colluded with Russia to steal the election, or countless other MSM / Deep State / global Davos elite myths, the "millions will die" Corona myth is fast taking its place in the litany of Mass Effects Mythology.

As it recedes into the past, the "powers that be" -- MSM, Deep State, global Davos elite, etc will move it into being the "fault" of Trump, corporations, big pharma, etc ... the big lie of "we are all in this together" will cover the tracks of reality.

 Was there actual elite panic? Was there massive short selling, or investment in producers of PPE (Personal Protective Equipment)"? Did China release this on purpose, possibly in concert with Russia and the Saudi's to tank the energy markets and try to kill the fracking companies? The list is way too long to draw any conclusions, but from the start, the response to Covid 19 was clearly extreme and and highly out of character to the many VERY comparable viruses of the past. "Why" is something very few are asking.

Naturally, it could all be just massive global incompetence. Consider that as of today, the deaths per million in NY are 1,153,  in Japan, 3 (THREE), and in South Dakota, castigated by the MSM last week for being a poorly managed "hot spot", they are 13 per million. Open your mind, escape the MSM matrix! Having an open mind and being able to honestly assess rather than follow the crowd of WHO/CDC etc can make a HUGE difference!

Anyway, we now know that Corona is way more infectious than even the worst case projections, and other than for the elderly and immunocompromised, WAY less serious/deadly than even the best case projections. Yet again, "predictions are hard to make, especially about the future", and "the map is not the territory"

One might think that we know these things, but clearly as a general population. we do not.

The Big Lie

https://americanconsequences.com/the-big-lie-behind-covid-19/

Just a good one to read and keep around. "We are all in this together". 

At the heart of every mass delusion, there’s a “big lie.” The big lie is a falsehood so outrageous and so obviously wrong, in retrospect people can hardly believe that anyone took it seriously.

The Biggest Corona Problem Is Eternal

https://spectator.us/confessions-covid-19-truther/

Always among the most sobering or truths ...

Stated by Socrates:  “The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.”

Stated by Solomon: "The fear of the LORD is the beginning of wisdom, and knowledge of the Holy One is understanding."

Stated by Jesus: "I am the vine; you are the branches. If you remain in me and I in you, you will bear much fruit; apart from me you can do nothing."

Stated by the linked article which references Cardinal Ratzinger, whose wisdom I have often appreciated:

The bigger (perhaps biggest) problem is that nobody has any idea what is true. Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, just before Pope Benedict XVI talked about the ‘dictatorship of relativism.’ What he meant is that, without any grounding in Christian concepts of natural law, humans have a tendency to believe in anything so long as it satisfies their sense of self. This leaves us living under a tyranny which, as Ratzinger put it, ‘recognizes nothing as absolute and which only leaves the “I” and its whims as the ultimate measure.’ 

That’s what is happening with the COVID-19 panic. Nobody really understands the scale of the problem. Almost everybody, truthers and alarmists, are grasping at nothing. We can’t admit the most frightening truth of all, which is that none of us knows anything at all.

I certainly lean "truther" because my bias is to question the prevailing elite dogma. The more I'm called a "bitter clinger" or a "deplorable", the more I question the earthly wisdom and cling to the Cross.

Because my understanding of the human condition is that we WILL believe in something, my faith is in Christ -- and since it is faith, it won't be defended here as "rational", however it is just as easy (and I find it easier) to RATIONALIZE in comparison to Materialism, Progressivism, Secular Humanism, Scientism, Historicism,  etc 

Bad Models, Politics Kills, Learning

A FB responder to the excellent PL report said the following:

"Look up how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S. and then look up their post-mortem guidelines for handling Covid-19. It's interesting when you approach it from the position of having to create models, especially under pressure, with flawed and/or limited data."

My methodology (below) as I thought of this ... I THINK what the FB responder may be trying to say is "well, the reporting / models might not be right, but it is really hard".  

Well, yes ... "Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future", AND, the map/models are NEVER reality/the territory! 

SO, in pretty much every case prior  to this Corona,  FIRST, "we do no, or minimal harm" ... like we isolate the elderly / vulnerable, we start doing randomized testing and observe hot spots, we take "reasonable measures" to isolate those hot spots ... and we keep doing that randomized testing to get an increasingly accurate ACTUAL death rate, and with increasing knowledge we continue to adapt, making adjustments as we learn. 

So the really big question is WHY NOT THIS TIME? 

So I read CDC methodology for estimate of seasonal flu burden ... in summary:

• It's complicated
• It's slow so we keep revising it 
• Since we keep revising it, comparisons with past numbers may not be valid. 
• We do a lot of "adjustments" whenever we want, based on our changing "assumptions, models. etc" and especially to justify our existence and get more funding (we REALLY hope they don't consider that last part very much!) 

Really short summary -- "trust us" ... no matter what changes we make.

Then I read https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/COVID-19-Persons-Under-Investigation-and-Case-Report-Form-Instructions.pdf ... most interesting to me was that they changed the reporting on the 15th of March to get rid of "presumed". 

I've looked at CDC reporting on H1N1 in the past ... summary "to calculate the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) in the United States, we extrapolated from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infections Program laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations across the entire United States, and then corrected for under-reporting. From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001. In our study, adults 65 years of age or older were found to have rates of hospitalization and death that were up to 75% and 81%, respectively, lower than seasonal influenza. These results confirm the necessity of a concerted public health response to pH1N1.

So, H1N1 had a much greater impact on the young than Covid-19, as of today, total US deaths reported are 18K ... HEAVILY (like 89% + skewed to 70+ age) -- which makes "how you report" a very critical factor (PL post). As of today we are just short of .5 million cases, vs the 60 million final total for H1N1 . 

It isn't hard to find much higher estimates for H1N1 ,,, this CDC source says 10x, or 200K deaths WW.

Here is a great article on the likely extreme overstatement of Covid-19 deaths. Again, WHY are many WW heath organizations looking to overstate Covid -19 deaths, while in comparison, I think we can be pretty certain that China is vastly under-reporting for obvious reasons. 

We all need to be aware of Japan ... as of today their death rate is .8 per million compared to our 54 and Spain's 342. Those are VERY different numbers, therefore HUGE opportunities for learning! 

That is my biggest concern here, that we LEARN! Socialism and open borders KILL! 

The Socialist-led government of Pedro Sánchez reacted late and clumsily. The country lacked essential equipment. Ventilators, protective clothing for doctors and coronavirus tests are still only just being sourced. China has gone from villain to saviour, as equipment and tests pour in – much of it brokered by the same Chinese immigrant community that has closed shops and shut itself away to avoid a racist backlash.

Corona, Swine, Time

Before you get turned off by the fact I look at history, take a look at current WHO actual tracking for perspective.

Having lived through the Swine Flu panic of the 1970's, I'm thankful to it for for being a heavy contributor to my skepticism of the "brilliance" of government, media, and "experts" in general.

More than 500 people are thought to have developed Guillain-Barre syndrome after receiving the vaccine; 25 died. No one completely understands the causes of Guillain-Barre, but the condition can develop after a bout with infection or following surgery or vaccination. The federal government paid millions in damages to people or their families.

However, the pandemic, which some experts estimated at the time could infect 50 million to 60 million Americans, never unfolded. Only about 200 cases of swine flu and one death were ultimately reported in the U.S., the CDC said.

So government screws up, vaccine kills 25, flu kills 1 ... and we won't even talk about economic cost. Oh, and some of us don't actually believe everything the government tells us -- making us "deniers",

Most of our media and government minders are "progressive" ... history is bunk, best forgotten, and we are MUCH smarter now! So no reason to bring up the past mistakes. (unless it is McCarthyism, Watergate, or a few other select cases, but I digress )

Naturally, this one COULD be different -- that is how predicting the future ALWAYS is. As for me, I remain a student of history -- which after all is all that science is based on -- the assumption that the next time an experiment that has produced "X" results in the past is done, it will with produce "X" results again! Induction, the Thanksgiving turkey problem  -- "humans are benevolent creatures that care for turkeys, "proven" anew each day of its life until Thanksgiving."

We all live by faith the question is "In what?"

Fast forward to H1N1 in 2009.

Working with admittedly sparse data, a research team led by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the global death toll from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at more than 284,000, about 15 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases.

The team estimated that 80% of those who died were younger than 65, which is in accord with previous observations that the pandemic H1N1 burden fell heavily on younger people, unlike the pattern for seasonal flu.

CDC estimates there were 60 million h1n1 cases ... the REPORTED cases will always be far less, because thankfully, the vast majority of people that get the flu just get it, deal with it, and life goes on. The GOOD NEWS of Corona is that the vast majority of people who get Corona will not know they had it.

Stranger still is the fact that testing for H1N1 in the US was stopped in July of 2009 because "it had already been declared an epidemic"!

Here in the present day, AS OF TODAY we have 168k confirmed cases and 6600 deaths due to Corona.

Unlike H1N1 the evidence so far is strong that Corona kills the old vs the young.

Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.

Add into this, people with compromised immune systems, smokers, and those living in areas with heavy air pollution are more at risk.

At the end of January, lots of media was complaining that Trump was overreacting to Corona ... not so much now. I believe that we can be very certain the media will remain anti-Trump, so at least something is certain!

We also know we are in an insane tribal time ... a council woman in Denver suggests it is a is a good idea to spread Corona to Trump supporters. It isn't hard to find people hoping that Corona "ends Trump". I'm not a huge media follower ... I think we all know that we are tribally divided and that fact affects how we see global happenings. For ALL of us ... me included.

Based on what I see, these are my thoughts:

• It seems likely that the reaction in the US erring on the side of unreasonable caution as it did in the 1970's Swine Flu -- hopefully with less negative affect.
• In hindsight, it appears that there was an under-reaction to H1N1  ... 280K deaths skewed to the young vs the old seems more frightening ... yet, it wasn't, and the deaths may be higher since testing was stopped in the US. 
• It is pretty clear that Corona is not well understood, so perhaps that is the reason for what appears to be an overabundance of caution -- "fear of the unknown".  (did we not have that in 2009?) 
• OTOH, the evidence we DO have ... hitting mostly the elderly, many cases so mild they are not reported, etc would "normally" lead to an indication that things like the NCAA tournament would not need to be cancelled. Advising elderly to stay home and watch on TV would seem to be sufficient caution in "normal times". 

My firm bias is that like most issues in our time, the response to Corona has become tribal -- if you are of the "Progressive Tribe", you MUST believe in what the "general global authority" says, so you do. To doubt that authority is to doubt your secular faith in science and progress.

I fervently pray that God will provide us with another golden opportunity to shift our faith and become "Post Secular". 

Here's hoping we will look back on Corona as the point where the tide of unreason and wishful thinking turned. (yes, I know that is unlikely -- hope is good)

However, even if Corona  "fizzles", the "powers that be" will have their ready explanations for why they were still right. In the early '80s when crazy "Ronnie Raygun" made the claim that we would consign the USSR to "the ash heap of history", the MSM and the intelligentsia called him a dangerous madman. When the USSR fell, those powers gave Gorbachev all the credit.

In any case, I fervently pray we LEARN ... as we didn't from the 70's, 80's and many other cases were our "expert powers that be" plainly showed their feet of clay.

Fear of God remains our only hope to maintain a bit of humility, which is required for learning!