Thursday, November 19, 2020

Corona Forever At Home

Think that just because you have had Corona and recovered you are immune? 

Not according to the CDC -- you have to read down a bit under this link, it is the 3rd + after "transmission": 

CDC is aware of recent reports indicating that persons who were previously diagnosed with COVID-19 can be re-infected. These reports can understandably cause concern. The immune response, including duration of immunity, to SARS-CoV-2 infection is not yet understood. Based on what we know from other viruses, including common human coronaviruses, some reinfections are expected. Ongoing COVID-19 studies will help establish the frequency and severity of reinfection and who might be at higher risk for reinfection. At this time, whether you have had COVID-19 or not, the best ways to prevent infection are to wear a mask in public places, stay at least 6 feet away from other people, frequently wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, and avoid crowds and confined spaces.

Therefore, if you have faith in the CDC, we are on perpetual masking and social isolation.  

So how far are Corona mandates going? In Pennsylvania they are going into your home.  

Masks are now required indoors wherever people from different households are gathered — even if they are physically distant, the state health secretary, Dr. Rachel Levine, said Tuesday. The order applies to every indoor facility, including in private homes, but Levine acknowledged that officials are relying on voluntary compliance rather than on enforcement.

"Voluntary compliance" ... so far. In an increasing totalitarian state, the "experts" ideas are just so good they have to be made mandatory -- naturally for your own good! 

In Minnesota, the "Time to HEEL" includes ratting your neighbors out.  

Minneapolis encourages people to reach out to the non-emergency 311 line if they see questionable social distancing.

I know this is hard to remember now, but the old country called "America" was "the land of the free and the home of the brave"! We now live in a fascist state, "Wokeistan". Even gere in Emmetsburg Iowa, the sheriff showed up and prevented a land sale at a large facility with lots of room. 

The fact that number of cases is what is most reported (nearly exclusively) tells us there is an agenda. An honest scientist / statistician would report the rate of deaths if/when you get Corona. It is a very infectious virus, so the vast majority of us will get it. Of course 100% of us will die of something, and our chances of death rise dramatically by age. Sometimes in panic, we forget the obvious. 

Amazingly, finding death rate by age is quite hard. I wasted a lot of time this AM on what in a rational non-paniced nation would be the chief reported number. Here is data on that from this source

Some believe that the shift in infections from old to young is the primary explanation for the drop in mortality. A recent medRxiv preprint concluded that the relationship between infection fatality rate and age may be exponential. The researchers found that the age-specific infection fatality rate was extremely low among children and young adults, measuring 0.002% at age 10 and 0.1% at 25. However, the rate progressively increased with age, growing from 0.4% at 55 to around 15% at 85.

 As rational people know, it is a Henny Youngman world: "How is your wife? ... Compared to what"? Data without comparison / context IS useless ... "I lost 50 lbs", GREAT news for me. Very bad news for a 100lb woman. 

So let's compare the Corona death rate to flu: 

So at 50 to 64 years (a range I'm strangely interested in), the death rate for flu is 10.6 according to this chart, compared to previous Corona chart rate of .4 at 55. Yes, I wish the granularity was better, and I'm sure the rate goes up as one gets closer to 65, but it seems an interesting data point. 

 I find that suspiciously high, I understand that if you go 65+ with no upper bound, of course it is 100%, it would be for ANY disease or injury ... say a stubbed toe. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics! That does not mean they are "useless" it just means that like driving, you must pay attention! 

So let's look at more data. Here is flu 2010-2011: 

In my similarly age group of interest 50-64, we are looking at 10.1, which again seems really high to me ... however, I might not be completely objective here for some strange reason!

So I'm neither a doctor or a statistician, so NOT an "expert" (eg always certain, frequently wrong). My conclusions: 

  1. Unless you are quite old and/or have an underlying condition, Corona is a pretty mild flu. 
  2. The reporting on Corona is absolutely tragic. "Cases" is useless metric, even if you accept the accuracy of the various tests (which very suspect.  For the fast tests, flipping a coin seems to be close to the same accuracy. 
  3. The collateral damage from Corona is "large" in deaths, not just economics. 
  4. Panic and fear cause a LOT of bad things. 
    1. People rushing to the doctor because they are scared (who could blame them given the media/government reporting/reaction-- and the hospital is a dangerous place.  
    2. Health workers being uselessly quarantined -- don't treat at risk patients for "some time" after a diagnosis, otherwise if you feel well, you ARE well. As indicated above, the CDC says you are not "safe" even after you had it! Not that I believe the CDC, but many do
    3. Families, friends, communities being separated both physically and because of different views. We NEED to gather, for this level of risk, the "cure" is more damaging than the virus. 
    4. Panic causing worse symptoms -- as a panic attack sufferer, I can testify that panic is not conducive to breathing. 
I could ramble on of course. I would like to think that the panic was caused because a lot of old people died very quickly, and it tore through nursing homes at an alarming rate. For little things like death, people tend to personalize and project. "A plane crash killed a lot of people, therefore it is dangerous for me to fly". 

Like a stock market bubble (or crash), people quickly lapse into mania, "I've got to get IN right now no matter how expensive it is! Followed by "I've got to get OUT right now to stop my losses!" 

While I sincerely hope that these very human reasons are the cause of the panic, the timing is at best concerning relative to politics and mass control.  

For practicing Christians, at least the Confessional sort, we are admonished to not follow the crowd, but rather step back and attempt to take an eternal perspective. We are eternally free, no matter how totalitarian the state becomes. (John 8) 31 So Jesus said to the Jews who had believed him, “If you abide in my word, you are truly my disciples, 32 and you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.”

Our time here is short, and we have faith that to live is Christ, and to die is gain. If you are a practicing even 90 year old Christian, fear not! Enjoy the holidays with the family as much as you can, and judge not. If this life is all one has, adherence to what is currently proffered as "undeniable science" belief in that is one of the main "virtues" one has. In that case, then fear, masks, isolation, etc are very understandable. Show grace, be gentle in stating your views. 

One of my current prayers is that more people will realize that our (or our government, "experts") to "control" anything, including our next breath is an illusion. You WILL believe in something -- choose wisely!


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