Covid Denial Fake News

https://www.wired.com/story/are-covid-patients-gasping-it-isnt-real-as-they-die/

One of the MANY things I find disconcerting about our time is the tendency to turn every disagreement into a strawman argument. 

Statement: "I think the response to Covid is excessive and damaging". 

Response:  "Oh, you are a crazy Covid DENIER!

As tribalism increases, this sort of strawman is more common, especially for Covid. 

The summary of the linked is that a nurse dealt with many patients gasping for breath and saying "it isn't real", "I thought this was a hoax" sort of things as they die. The MSM has widely spread this as part of the "tragedy" of Covid denial -- even Slate, not "right wing" in any sense, observes that this sort of thing is why media trust becoming non existent. 

I can imagine it is somewhat common for dying patients to say all sorts of things similar to this -- "I never believed this would happen to me", "I was so certain I'd beat this cancer", "I had faith the Lord would cure me", etc, etc, and often not very coherent for reasons I would think all would understand -- drugs, pain, extreme weakness ... I've never died and only have a sample of two that went peacefully under plenty of medication without gasping for breath. 

The best we can hope for is fairly quick with minimal pain and panic -- trying to make it worse than it is has very little benefit. If the news spent half the time on the tragedy of a young person dying in a car accident, maybe their screams as responders tried to cut their broken body from a mangled vehicle, interviewing the bereaved family, etc, hopefully we would just shut off the news, steel our level of denial, etc. No matter how careful you are, it CAN happen to you, just like Covid. 

I doubt there are any lung damaging conditions that make dying from essentially slow asphyxiation much fun -- lung cancer, pneumonia, tuberculosis, CPD ...

Why can't we get along? One reason is tribalism. It is prevalent in our time and pretty much all of us are guilty because "tit for tat" is a natural tendency. Pro-lifers often say "you must want to kill babies", which is equivalent to saying to a smoker "you must want to get cancer", or someone overweight "you must want to die of a heart attack". All have elements of truth, but such a statement is not going to help anything. 

We are not going to fix human nature, but understanding it and tribalism may help us be a tiny bit more civil. 

Super Covid Thanksgiving Memes - Power Line

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/the-week-in-pictures-colonialism-protest-meal-edition.php

So good it must be saved.

Do Masks Work?

 https://spectator.us/landmark-danish-study-shows-face-masks-significant-effect/?utm_source=Spectator+USA+Email+Signup&utm_campaign=fa378186a4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_8_31_2020_19_27_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_edf2ae2373-fa378186a4-154689905&mc_cid=fa378186a4&mc_eid=43b2a02730

It has long been shown they have very little protection for YOU. 

In the end, there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by COVID-19. Of those wearing masks, 1.8 percent caught COVID, compared to 2.1 percent of the control group. As a result, it seems that any effect masks have on preventing the spread of the disease in the community is small.

However, I fault the article for not saying anything about masks protecting OTHERS.  

Thus, one needs to look at the Rt rate, which is rate that the virus is spreading. You can do your own analysis quite easily ... the easy answer is that most of the states with mask mandates have WORSE Rt measures than those without. This is especially interesting for states like Minnesota that have larger cities. It seems that Iowa and Minnesota would be good comparisons due to relative population density -- perhaps one can throw out states like South Dakota with low density, which obviously helps slow spread.

So why is MN worse than Iowa?  

For some more detailed analysis, see this. 

The bottom line is that at least mask MANDATES don't seem to be effective. Naturally you can find "studies" that are all over the board. My experience is that the Minnesota people are being very compliant with wearing the masks. If they work to prevent the spread, they ought to work in Minnesota! 

Corona Forever At Home

Think that just because you have had Corona and recovered you are immune? 

Not according to the CDC -- you have to read down a bit under this link, it is the 3rd + after "transmission": 

CDC is aware of recent reports indicating that persons who were previously diagnosed with COVID-19 can be re-infected. These reports can understandably cause concern. The immune response, including duration of immunity, to SARS-CoV-2 infection is not yet understood. Based on what we know from other viruses, including common human coronaviruses, some reinfections are expected. Ongoing COVID-19 studies will help establish the frequency and severity of reinfection and who might be at higher risk for reinfection. At this time, whether you have had COVID-19 or not, the best ways to prevent infection are to wear a mask in public places, stay at least 6 feet away from other people, frequently wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, and avoid crowds and confined spaces.

Therefore, if you have faith in the CDC, we are on perpetual masking and social isolation.  

So how far are Corona mandates going? In Pennsylvania they are going into your home.  

Masks are now required indoors wherever people from different households are gathered — even if they are physically distant, the state health secretary, Dr. Rachel Levine, said Tuesday. The order applies to every indoor facility, including in private homes, but Levine acknowledged that officials are relying on voluntary compliance rather than on enforcement.

"Voluntary compliance" ... so far. In an increasing totalitarian state, the "experts" ideas are just so good they have to be made mandatory -- naturally for your own good! 

In Minnesota, the "Time to HEEL" includes ratting your neighbors out.  

Minneapolis encourages people to reach out to the non-emergency 311 line if they see questionable social distancing.

I know this is hard to remember now, but the old country called "America" was "the land of the free and the home of the brave"! We now live in a fascist state, "Wokeistan". Even gere in Emmetsburg Iowa, the sheriff showed up and prevented a land sale at a large facility with lots of room. 

The fact that number of cases is what is most reported (nearly exclusively) tells us there is an agenda. An honest scientist / statistician would report the rate of deaths if/when you get Corona. It is a very infectious virus, so the vast majority of us will get it. Of course 100% of us will die of something, and our chances of death rise dramatically by age. Sometimes in panic, we forget the obvious. 

Amazingly, finding death rate by age is quite hard. I wasted a lot of time this AM on what in a rational non-paniced nation would be the chief reported number. Here is data on that from this source: 

Some believe that the shift in infections from old to young is the primary explanation for the drop in mortality. A recent medRxiv preprint concluded that the relationship between infection fatality rate and age may be exponential. The researchers found that the age-specific infection fatality rate was extremely low among children and young adults, measuring 0.002% at age 10 and 0.1% at 25. However, the rate progressively increased with age, growing from 0.4% at 55 to around 15% at 85.

 As rational people know, it is a Henny Youngman world: "How is your wife? ... Compared to what"? Data without comparison / context IS useless ... "I lost 50 lbs", GREAT news for me. Very bad news for a 100lb woman. 

So let's compare the Corona death rate to flu: 

So at 50 to 64 years (a range I'm strangely interested in), the death rate for flu is 10.6 according to this chart, compared to previous Corona chart rate of .4 at 55. Yes, I wish the granularity was better, and I'm sure the rate goes up as one gets closer to 65, but it seems an interesting data point. 

 I find that suspiciously high, I understand that if you go 65+ with no upper bound, of course it is 100%, it would be for ANY disease or injury ... say a stubbed toe. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics! That does not mean they are "useless" it just means that like driving, you must pay attention! 

So let's look at more data. Here is flu 2010-2011: 

In my similarly age group of interest 50-64, we are looking at 10.1, which again seems really high to me ... however, I might not be completely objective here for some strange reason!

So I'm neither a doctor or a statistician, so NOT an "expert" (eg always certain, frequently wrong). My conclusions: 

1. Unless you are quite old and/or have an underlying condition, Corona is a pretty mild flu. 
2. The reporting on Corona is absolutely tragic. "Cases" is useless metric, even if you accept the accuracy of the various tests (which very suspect.  For the fast tests, flipping a coin seems to be close to the same accuracy. 
3. The collateral damage from Corona is "large" in deaths, not just economics. 
4. Panic and fear cause a LOT of bad things. 
1. People rushing to the doctor because they are scared (who could blame them given the media/government reporting/reaction-- and the hospital is a dangerous place.  
2. Health workers being uselessly quarantined -- don't treat at risk patients for "some time" after a diagnosis, otherwise if you feel well, you ARE well. As indicated above, the CDC says you are not "safe" even after you had it! Not that I believe the CDC, but many do
3. Families, friends, communities being separated both physically and because of different views. We NEED to gather, for this level of risk, the "cure" is more damaging than the virus. 
4. Panic causing worse symptoms -- as a panic attack sufferer, I can testify that panic is not conducive to breathing. 

I could ramble on of course. I would like to think that the panic was caused because a lot of old people died very quickly, and it tore through nursing homes at an alarming rate. For little things like death, people tend to personalize and project. "A plane crash killed a lot of people, therefore it is dangerous for me to fly". 

Like a stock market bubble (or crash), people quickly lapse into mania, "I've got to get IN right now no matter how expensive it is! Followed by "I've got to get OUT right now to stop my losses!" 

While I sincerely hope that these very human reasons are the cause of the panic, the timing is at best concerning relative to politics and mass control.  

For practicing Christians, at least the Confessional sort, we are admonished to not follow the crowd, but rather step back and attempt to take an eternal perspective. We are eternally free, no matter how totalitarian the state becomes. (John 8) 31 So Jesus said to the Jews who had believed him, “If you abide in my word, you are truly my disciples, 32 and you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.”

Our time here is short, and we have faith that to live is Christ, and to die is gain. If you are a practicing even 90 year old Christian, fear not! Enjoy the holidays with the family as much as you can, and judge not. If this life is all one has, adherence to what is currently proffered as "undeniable science" belief in that is one of the main "virtues" one has. In that case, then fear, masks, isolation, etc are very understandable. Show grace, be gentle in stating your views. 

One of my current prayers is that more people will realize that our (or our government, "experts") to "control" anything, including our next breath is an illusion. You WILL believe in something -- choose wisely!

 

Three Whiskey, An Eye For An Eye

 https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/podcast-the-three-whisky-happy-hour-milk-the-trump-dividend.php

I generally love this podcast, and think this one is especially worthy. The bottom line (even though they don't say it this way) is that we are back to Old Testament morality (and worse) in our culture. Republicans tend to be very leery of dealing with Democrats - and the Deep State/MSM, why be repetitive? Republicans tend to want to be "country club civil" and at least have the patina of "consistency", morality, and such -- the sort of thing that enlightenment, Constitutional, traditional, and other now defunct principles used to be respected by a large majority of Americans. 

We don't live there anymore. 

What is a Christian to do? I'm really not sure -- I think each case needs to be evaluated prayerfully. I covered some of this here. 

Excess Deaths, Corona Collateral Damage

 https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/11/16/minnesota-excess-deaths/

Lacking an objective media, and an increasingly politicized "science" community, we are forced to attempt to do the work that such our "experts" would be expected to do. Do I endorse the "Healthy Skeptic"? I don't know yet ... I found him through Power Line which I DO endorse (they even admit when they are wrong!) 

Here is a chart of total deaths in US from 2000 up to 2018 from PRB: 

If you follow the link and look at underlying data, 2018 total was 2,839,205. My understanding is there was at least a leveling out, or possibly even a modest drop in 2019 that makes the comparison to 2020 look worse. That "drop" could well be just reporting delay. Anyone who has done any actual statistics work (or even looks at Stock Market charts), knows that the norm is not a straight line. Looking at this chart makes me ask "what went wrong in 2009"? 

If you extrapolate the curve from 2000 to 2018, numbers over 3 million total US deaths would not be surprising at all in the absence of anything unusual. Is that projection "accurate"? Who knows? Extrapolations are used all the time, they often give a "decent idea", sometimes they are completely bogus. In March of 2020, the MSM was giving us the upper bound projections of how may "could" die of Covid "As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die". People under stress are drawn to the worst case.

What caused the increased number of total deaths post 2009?  ... the fact that BO stopped testing for H1N1 when the numbers looked bad comes to mind. 

I can't find much for 2019 data from the CDC or similar sources. I had to chuckle a bit when I saw this from a media "source". 

Data is provided through the 48th week of 2020. So far this year, the CDC reports that 2,877,601 people have died. At the same point in 2018, the number was 2,606,928, and in 2019, it was 2,614,950. The number of deaths to this point in 2020 is at least 260,000 greater than either of the past two years. But that number is an underestimate because the CDC publishes data based on the number of death certificates it has received. Since it can take a couple of weeks for all death certificates to be recorded, the numbers for the last two weeks at least, will increase as time goes by. If the last two weeks produce a similar number of deaths as the weeks before, the margin to this point will actually be close to 310,000.

"The linked article paints a dire picture. As many as "310,000" total deaths "to this point"! Who says death can't be funny! (certainly not Monty Python). The total death number are not reliable until a decent amount of time after the end of a given year. Massive bureaucracies don't have much of a reputation for either speed nor accuracy. The stats back to even the early 2000's are regularly "adjusted", much like temperature trends for AGW. Given the trend from 2009, these are not unexpected numbers without Covid. 

People don't understand numbers in general, and certainly not big numbers without context, they are basically meaningless. I had no idea what the total number of deaths in the US per year was up to today. I had even less idea about any trends. In a sane unbiased world, one of the huge responsibilities of media and government is to provide CONTEXT. When they don't, it is a great clue that they are lying to you and spewing propaganda.

Here is a chart of deaths from all causes in the US up to the middle of 2020 from CDC. It shows that in the context of other years, the increase is not really as frightening as the media-government complex would lead us to believe. High 2 millions, low 3 millions is within what one would expect absent a virus. Even if it was "out of trend line" like 2009, jumping to "it's Covid" as a conclusion is hardly warranted -- no more than my biased inkling that H1N1 was a major cause in 2009.

The short answer appears to be that we are NOT "off the trend line" for total deaths from ALL CAUSES. To add even more confusion to these numbers, something appears to have happened in 2009. It could be suicide, it could be opioids,  in could be H1N1, or a host of other things, but if you believe the CDC, it happened. 

The following chart shows Minnesota excess deaths from causes not claimed to be "caused by Corona" ... so therefore, quite likely to be Corona panic collateral damage. The response to Covid certainly caused excess death -- way too early to speculate how much, but we know that isolation, fear, and delayed medical procedures are going to push total deaths up. The linked is worth a look. 

Fascism In Action, The Power Line Case

 https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/media-access-in-one-state-finale.php

The short story is that Scott Johnson of Power Line was excluded from the MDH press briefings on and after April 27 of this year because he asked tough questions and posted blog entries critical of the "circle of love" cozy reporting with local MSM (Star Trib, MPR, etc). He filed suit and was eventually ... with lots of effort, expense, and judicial involvement, they grudgingly relented. 

So much for "free" speech. 

Here we have proof of the media / government cabal. "The Press" was once considered to be a vital "Fourth Estate", described in Wikipedia as follows:

Due to the massive increase in centralized political powers, emerges a need for the fourth estate of democracy, where transparency is maintained regarding information, news and the public sphere.[26] This fourth estate, being the news media, contributes greatly and is used as a tool for the unbiased dispersion of news.[27] Addressing important information that may often showcase the dark side of political parties or corporations.

I assert that it is completely obvious to a reasonable observer that there is no longer a vital "Fourth Estate" -- the Media, Government, and large corporations are effectively a single entity. I assert:

1. Media and the "State/Deep State" are now a single voice espousing one view of increasingly centralized anti Christian bureaucracy.
2. Large corporations,  like Facebook, Google, Amazon, Twitter , Microsoft, etc are effectively government extensions. They force their employees to celebrate things like gay "marriage", transgender, abortion, etc and actively discourage their even speaking about opposing views on any "rightish" political views -- mask mandates, less government, less regulation, no suppression of religion, etc
3. This means that what was formerly "America" is now an increasingly oppressive fascist state. 

We desperately need a return to the once great Constitutional Republic that was America, or, failing that, a creation of a separate "Free Republic of North America Under God". 

Hunter's Magical Mystery Laptop

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/10/how-do-we-know-the-hunter-joe-biden-documents-are-real.php

After 4 years of reporting every negative rumor, alleging MANY times that "the smoking gun" on Russia rigging the election for Trump in 2016, etc. the media are singularly uninterested in Hunter's laptop!    

Witness out in the open making statements ? Who cares! ... unlike Christine Blasey Ford whose words were GOSPEL, or a myriad of "whistle blowers" or "unnamed sources" who made many pieces of dirt "credible"! 

For one example ... 

Why, Trump called dead veterans "losers"! 

How do we know that?

Several observers told me that Trump is deeply anxious about dying or being disfigured, and this worry manifests itself as disgust for those who have suffered.

Will any of them go on record? Well no. 

However John Bolton, no friend of Trump, did say that the Atlantic story is false. 

There are number of others on record as well ... not that it matters to the Trump haters. 

HOWEVER. there MUST be absolute metaphysical PROOF before the MSM or apparently the Deep State "Justice" Department will look at the laptop! 

White Men Are Black

 https://spectator.us/trump-lose-support-among-white-men/

According to the Edison Exit Poll, Trump actually under-performed with white men and over-performed with black men and women and Latino men and women. He reportedly dropped five points among white men, but gained four points each among black men and women and three points each among Latino men and women. He also gained five points in the ‘other’ category.

Imagine that! In Biden world does that mean that that white men are black? 

 My guess is that a lot of white men didn't want to admit that they voted for Trump, and that old white guys are generally demoralized and scared of Covid. 

In any case, don't expect this to get much play. In the MSM world, white men are metaphysically racist and STRONG supporters of the actual "without evidence racist Trump". 

A Dreher Divided Country

 https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/a-divided-country/

Overly wordy as Dreher almost always is, however some good links, and also some good thoughts if you can stand the length. 

We are going to remain a divided country. The election solved nothing. The idea, though, that if only we could have gotten rid of Donald Trump, then things would heal, was always an absurd fantasy. We are a divided country because we have lost the core narratives that bound us: a shared Christian faith (however attenuated), and a shared commitment to the historical narrative of America as an imperfect country that always strives to make life better for the next generation than the one that came before it.

The highlighted statement is a nice description, of the problem - I would add, "respect and reverence for a written Constitution and the separation of powers".