Thursday, January 6, 2022

Inflation Can't Go On Forever

 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/28/inflation-interest-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177

Here is a little article showing some of the famous economists that have stated versions of the title of this blog. 

A cursory look at recent history is that we are somewhat on a repeat of the Sorry Seventies unfortunately including a hapless president rivaling and maybe even exceeding Jimmy Carter in his incompetence. 

I grew up with my dad constantly assuming that we would have a return to the 1930's when he grew up. He always was looking for the next depression, and to him, it never happened because the periods of decline were much less severe than the 1930's. I like to say that history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.

From 1966 to 1982, the stock market was flat.

In January of 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a level of 990. It would continue trading in a range of roughly 600 to 1,000 over the following 17 years. It once again reached 990 in December of 1982 before finally breaking out and heading higher.
That certainly isn't a "depression", but were something like that (or worse) to repeat, it would change a lot of Boomers lifestyles. 

Between 2008 and 2014, the Federal Reserve printed more than $3.5 trillion in new bills. To put that in perspective, it’s roughly triple the amount of money that the Fed created in its first 95 years of existence. Three centuries’ worth of growth in the money supply was crammed into a few short years. The money poured through the veins of the financial system and stoked demand for assets like stocks, corporate debt and commercial real estate bonds, driving up prices across markets. Hoenig was the one Fed leader who voted consistently against this course of action, starting in 2010. In doing so, he pitted himself against the Fed’s powerful chair at the time, Ben Bernanke, who was widely regarded as a hero for the ambitious rescue plans he designed and oversaw.
Extraordinary events tend to have extraordinary results ... often results that are at least unexpected in some quarters. 

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