Excess Deaths, Corona Collateral Damage

 https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/11/16/minnesota-excess-deaths/

Lacking an objective media, and an increasingly politicized "science" community, we are forced to attempt to do the work that such our "experts" would be expected to do. Do I endorse the "Healthy Skeptic"? I don't know yet ... I found him through Power Line which I DO endorse (they even admit when they are wrong!) 

Here is a chart of total deaths in US from 2000 up to 2018 from PRB: 

If you follow the link and look at underlying data, 2018 total was 2,839,205. My understanding is there was at least a leveling out, or possibly even a modest drop in 2019 that makes the comparison to 2020 look worse. That "drop" could well be just reporting delay. Anyone who has done any actual statistics work (or even looks at Stock Market charts), knows that the norm is not a straight line. Looking at this chart makes me ask "what went wrong in 2009"? 

If you extrapolate the curve from 2000 to 2018, numbers over 3 million total US deaths would not be surprising at all in the absence of anything unusual. Is that projection "accurate"? Who knows? Extrapolations are used all the time, they often give a "decent idea", sometimes they are completely bogus. In March of 2020, the MSM was giving us the upper bound projections of how may "could" die of Covid "As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die". People under stress are drawn to the worst case.

What caused the increased number of total deaths post 2009?  ... the fact that BO stopped testing for H1N1 when the numbers looked bad comes to mind. 

I can't find much for 2019 data from the CDC or similar sources. I had to chuckle a bit when I saw this from a media "source". 

Data is provided through the 48th week of 2020. So far this year, the CDC reports that 2,877,601 people have died. At the same point in 2018, the number was 2,606,928, and in 2019, it was 2,614,950. The number of deaths to this point in 2020 is at least 260,000 greater than either of the past two years. But that number is an underestimate because the CDC publishes data based on the number of death certificates it has received. Since it can take a couple of weeks for all death certificates to be recorded, the numbers for the last two weeks at least, will increase as time goes by. If the last two weeks produce a similar number of deaths as the weeks before, the margin to this point will actually be close to 310,000.

"The linked article paints a dire picture. As many as "310,000" total deaths "to this point"! Who says death can't be funny! (certainly not Monty Python). The total death number are not reliable until a decent amount of time after the end of a given year. Massive bureaucracies don't have much of a reputation for either speed nor accuracy. The stats back to even the early 2000's are regularly "adjusted", much like temperature trends for AGW. Given the trend from 2009, these are not unexpected numbers without Covid. 

People don't understand numbers in general, and certainly not big numbers without context, they are basically meaningless. I had no idea what the total number of deaths in the US per year was up to today. I had even less idea about any trends. In a sane unbiased world, one of the huge responsibilities of media and government is to provide CONTEXT. When they don't, it is a great clue that they are lying to you and spewing propaganda.

Here is a chart of deaths from all causes in the US up to the middle of 2020 from CDC. It shows that in the context of other years, the increase is not really as frightening as the media-government complex would lead us to believe. High 2 millions, low 3 millions is within what one would expect absent a virus. Even if it was "out of trend line" like 2009, jumping to "it's Covid" as a conclusion is hardly warranted -- no more than my biased inkling that H1N1 was a major cause in 2009.

The short answer appears to be that we are NOT "off the trend line" for total deaths from ALL CAUSES. To add even more confusion to these numbers, something appears to have happened in 2009. It could be suicide, it could be opioids,  in could be H1N1, or a host of other things, but if you believe the CDC, it happened. 

The following chart shows Minnesota excess deaths from causes not claimed to be "caused by Corona" ... so therefore, quite likely to be Corona panic collateral damage. The response to Covid certainly caused excess death -- way too early to speculate how much, but we know that isolation, fear, and delayed medical procedures are going to push total deaths up. The linked is worth a look. 

Fascism In Action, The Power Line Case

 https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/media-access-in-one-state-finale.php

The short story is that Scott Johnson of Power Line was excluded from the MDH press briefings on and after April 27 of this year because he asked tough questions and posted blog entries critical of the "circle of love" cozy reporting with local MSM (Star Trib, MPR, etc). He filed suit and was eventually ... with lots of effort, expense, and judicial involvement, they grudgingly relented. 

So much for "free" speech. 

Here we have proof of the media / government cabal. "The Press" was once considered to be a vital "Fourth Estate", described in Wikipedia as follows:

Due to the massive increase in centralized political powers, emerges a need for the fourth estate of democracy, where transparency is maintained regarding information, news and the public sphere.[26] This fourth estate, being the news media, contributes greatly and is used as a tool for the unbiased dispersion of news.[27] Addressing important information that may often showcase the dark side of political parties or corporations.

I assert that it is completely obvious to a reasonable observer that there is no longer a vital "Fourth Estate" -- the Media, Government, and large corporations are effectively a single entity. I assert:

1. Media and the "State/Deep State" are now a single voice espousing one view of increasingly centralized anti Christian bureaucracy.
2. Large corporations,  like Facebook, Google, Amazon, Twitter , Microsoft, etc are effectively government extensions. They force their employees to celebrate things like gay "marriage", transgender, abortion, etc and actively discourage their even speaking about opposing views on any "rightish" political views -- mask mandates, less government, less regulation, no suppression of religion, etc
3. This means that what was formerly "America" is now an increasingly oppressive fascist state. 

We desperately need a return to the once great Constitutional Republic that was America, or, failing that, a creation of a separate "Free Republic of North America Under God". 

Hunter's Magical Mystery Laptop

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/10/how-do-we-know-the-hunter-joe-biden-documents-are-real.php

After 4 years of reporting every negative rumor, alleging MANY times that "the smoking gun" on Russia rigging the election for Trump in 2016, etc. the media are singularly uninterested in Hunter's laptop!    

Witness out in the open making statements ? Who cares! ... unlike Christine Blasey Ford whose words were GOSPEL, or a myriad of "whistle blowers" or "unnamed sources" who made many pieces of dirt "credible"! 

For one example ... 

Why, Trump called dead veterans "losers"! 

How do we know that?

Several observers told me that Trump is deeply anxious about dying or being disfigured, and this worry manifests itself as disgust for those who have suffered.

Will any of them go on record? Well no. 

However John Bolton, no friend of Trump, did say that the Atlantic story is false. 

There are number of others on record as well ... not that it matters to the Trump haters. 

HOWEVER. there MUST be absolute metaphysical PROOF before the MSM or apparently the Deep State "Justice" Department will look at the laptop! 

White Men Are Black

 https://spectator.us/trump-lose-support-among-white-men/

According to the Edison Exit Poll, Trump actually under-performed with white men and over-performed with black men and women and Latino men and women. He reportedly dropped five points among white men, but gained four points each among black men and women and three points each among Latino men and women. He also gained five points in the ‘other’ category.

Imagine that! In Biden world does that mean that that white men are black? 

 My guess is that a lot of white men didn't want to admit that they voted for Trump, and that old white guys are generally demoralized and scared of Covid. 

In any case, don't expect this to get much play. In the MSM world, white men are metaphysically racist and STRONG supporters of the actual "without evidence racist Trump". 

A Dreher Divided Country

 https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/a-divided-country/

Overly wordy as Dreher almost always is, however some good links, and also some good thoughts if you can stand the length. 

We are going to remain a divided country. The election solved nothing. The idea, though, that if only we could have gotten rid of Donald Trump, then things would heal, was always an absurd fantasy. We are a divided country because we have lost the core narratives that bound us: a shared Christian faith (however attenuated), and a shared commitment to the historical narrative of America as an imperfect country that always strives to make life better for the next generation than the one that came before it.

The highlighted statement is a nice description, of the problem - I would add, "respect and reverence for a written Constitution and the separation of powers". 

MI Voter Fraud Marker

 https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/voter-fraud-in-michigan.php

A little saved marker for the depth of voter fraud in 2020, 

A Time To Heel

https://time.com/5908983/president-elect-joe-biden-vows-to-usher-in-a-time-to-heal-in-america/

As usual, Biden has his words mixed up -- he said "heal", but he meant "HEEL". 

As Reagan said, "A liberal will defend your right to agree with them to their dying breath". He was a really optimistic nice guy. Sadly, a "liberal" or better put, a "leftist" will defend that "right" to YOUR dying breath as well, as they have proven in the USSR, Nazi Germany, China, Cuba, etc ... they are always hard at work to "get it right" (get it left) by them having total control. 

"Liberalism/leftism" is about power. Many of their true believers think that it is about "progress" to a new "utopia" -- one of absolute "equality", economic "appropriate plenty" (fully green of course!), guaranteed "everything" -- healthcare, education, entertainment, happiness, etc. 

In short, "utopia"! How could anyone be so evil to be against utopia?

The conservatives - the "right", which like everything in this modern house of mirrors is really more "left" ... it is really more accurately "Control vs Chaos". The "right" wants more freedom, which if overdone is chaos. The left seeks absolute control -- over what you say, over any of your "rights", eventually even over what you think -- see "1984".   Since the "left" is atheistic, because they want total control. To live in their "utopia", government must be "god". Your social media activity will be "fact checked", and if the left finds it to not be following their "truth", it will be suppressed.

After four years of "resistance", "not my president", "deplorables", "illegitimate" SCOTUS appointments, and on and on, now is the time for heeling. How unexpected! 

In the tradition of Monty Python,  freedom is "Not Yet Dead Yet" ... although it is on life support and fading fast. 

We know there is massive vote fraud, and Georgia may still give a liberty saving vote in the Senate. If you can't have Constitutional government, divided government is the next best thing. 

To continue the Python theme, if one is crazy enough to look on the bright side, one could believe that the SCOTUS would force investigation and prosecution of the vote fraud in 2020, and demand a secure system so elections could be trusted. We have trusted banking and trusted credit card systems, it IS possible. Anyone that believes in freedom will strongly support and demand such a system, those against such a system are defending "their right to cheat" ... this is absolutely a "Rule of Law" issue and the SCOTUS needs to step up and fix it! 

So why is the "right" not out marching, wailing, and talking about leaving the country as the left did in 2016? Some of the key reasons are: 

1. They have faith that God is in power, and at worst this life is but a breath compared to eternity
2. Government is down their list of priorities ... God, family, vocation, community (and theirs are usually small and real rather than virtual and largely fake), meaningful pursuits like hunting, fishing, working with wood, improving their homes, study, etc 
3. They know that although America is failing, it is still the best free choice available. They have nowhere to go. 
4. They are generally hopeful self reliant people. They believe that "there are always alternatives", as in my case, they can "move to red" -- if you look at the map, there is a LOT of red. 

One must respect the honesty of AOC -- "Is anyone archiving these Trump sycophants for when they try to downplay or deny their complicity in the future". I foresee a decent probability of many deleted Tweets, writings, photos in the future. "

For Christians, there are many verses that are a comfort to us even if we are hunted down and persecuted. 

Matt 5:11 "Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me."

Observing Voter Fraud

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/massive-voter-fraud-in-wisconsin.php

The punchline of the linked is this chart. 

Notice the sudden vertical increase in "Biden votes". 

In order to believe that that these are honest results, you have to believe that: 

1. Wisconsin had a miraculous turnout of 88%! In 2016 their turnout was 67%. Talk about getting out the "vote!"
2. Though Trump had more than 200k votes than 2016, 248k more "voters" turned out for the charismatic Joe Biden than for the "unifying" HC 4 years ago

Here is the chart of Wisconsin's historical turnout, 2020 is a MIRACLE! 

Statement Of Faith Post Election 2020

I post something like this every once in awhile hoping I'm interpreting Luke 12:8 correctly "I tell you, whoever publicly acknowledges me before others, the Son of Man will also acknowledge before the angels of God." Naturally, given my strange brain, it might mean, "Bill, I want to make it clear that I acknowledge you as a bad example".  

After brain surgery and multiple seizures, God has finally shown me I control NOTHING. "I must decrease, Christ must increase" ... I have faith that my life in Christ will go on eternally, and fully agree that eternity could be less than a breath away.

 Christ says “I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me." John 14:6 "Whatever" is an eternal mistake. America turned from God, so we have no peace -- and we will not have it unless we return to God. "So letting your sinful nature control your mind leads to death. But letting the Spirit control your mind leads to life and peace. " Romans 8:6 

For the nation, as Reagan said: "If we ever forget that we are one nation under God, we will be a nation gone under". The idea that we can "fix it" without God is killing America.

Practice Christian faith. Christ is the eternal anchor. Without him, we have neither peace nor hope.

Why I Support Trump

 I've seen a number of back and forths lately (again, as in 2016) as to why Christians ought to stand the election out, or even vote for Biden. If you are interested in deep discussion (as I often am), I'd encourage you to read: 

• Veith on Piper 
• Gruden responds to Piper 

Both articles are good, Piper defends being lukewarm, something I see as eternally perilous. Siimple minds like mine need it simpler: 

1. As Christians, we are called to decrease while Christ increases. We are "in the world but not of the world". We are free to vote for imperfect candidates, fight in wars, serve in corrupt government, and much else. We are both "saints and sinners". Matt 5:13 "I am sending you out like sheep among wolves. Therefore be as shrewd as snakes and as innocent as doves." Be shrewd. 
   
   
2. Political candidates are always imperfect. Trump's policies are more Christian supporting - Pro-Life, Pro-Family, not persecuting Christian values ( two genders, marriage being man and woman, etc) . We also can't just be "ambivalent" -- Rev 3:16 "So, because you are lukewarm--neither hot nor cold--I am about to spit you out of my mouth." Choose life boldly.
   
   
3. We can't just "stand this one out: -- Matt 5:13 "You are the salt of the earth. But if the salt loses its saltiness, how can it be made salty again? It is no longer good for anything, except to be thrown out and trampled underfoot." We have to SHINE like Matt 5:16 "In the same way, let your light shine before others, that they may see your good deeds and glorify your Father in heaven." We can't hide in our basements. Be salty and shine! 

Much of what I see posted by "Never Trumpers", some claiming to be Christians, is blatant Virtue Signaling. As Christians, we claim no virtue, we confess we are filthy sinners. Virtue Signaling is pride, and typically it us coupled with proud judgement of Trump and Christians that support him. We can and should prayerfully "discern". Judgment is the Lords.  

If your fervent prayer for the best vote leads you to Biden, so be it, judgement is not mine. Peace be with you.